SMM Nickel December 31:
Macro and Market News:
(1) To optimize the implementation of the "program of large-scale equipment upgrades and consumer goods trade-ins" policy, ensure a smooth and orderly policy transition, and meet the peak season consumption demand during holidays such as New Year's Day and the Chinese New Year, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), together with the Ministry of Finance, recently pre-allocated the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds for 2026 to local governments to support the consumer goods trade-in program.
(2) The minutes from the US Fed's December monetary policy meeting indicated that if inflation declines over time, most officials believe further interest rate cuts in the future could be appropriate. Nevertheless, the market still leans towards betting on two interest rate cuts next year, rather than the three cuts anticipated in early December.
Spot Market:
On December 31, the SMM #1 refined nickel price was 132,700-142,400 yuan/mt, with an average price of 137,550 yuan/mt, up 5,000 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan #1 refined nickel was 7,200-8,000 yuan/mt, with an average premium of 7,600 yuan/mt, up 350 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. The spot premiums and discounts quotation range for mainstream domestic brands of electrodeposited nickel was -200-300 yuan/mt.
Futures Market:
The most-traded SHFE nickel contract (2602) opened higher and moved higher during the night session, closing up 3.29%. In the early session, nickel prices surged before pulling back, reaching a high of 135,570 yuan/mt. As of the midday close, the contract was reported at 131,420 yuan/mt, up 1.34%.
Nickel prices are expected to continue fluctuating between "expectations of supply contraction due to tightening policies in Indonesia" and "the reality of high inventory and weak demand." The fluctuation range for the most-traded SHFE nickel contract may remain between 125,000-135,000 yuan/mt.
